What does a federal election mean for Victorian hospitality operators?

If you believe the reporting in the mainstream media this month, the Federal election scheduled for 2 July is a dual-to-the-bitter-end between half human-half tomato Barnaby Joyce and Johnny Depp with his rabid hounds Pistol and Boo. Or is Donald Trump going to be the new President of Australia?

If we cut through all the bluff and bluster and ignore the slogans, spend-o-meters, “jobs and growth” on repeat and Matthias Corman’s glowing praise for the leader of the opposition’s big heartednes, what would a Shorten-led ALP government versus a Turnbull-led coalition mean for our industry?

Is there a clear winner for hospitality? Not really. Depending on how you weight particular issues:

• If you’re a publican paying company tax and earning >$2M per annum in revenues, the Coalition’s economic plan is a winner for you. If you’re an income tax exempt club organisation, there’s really no difference between the parties on tax.
• Infrastructure policies of the two parties will benefit venues in key marginals, boosting incomes and spending power of construction and trades workers who represent a key market for hotels rather than clubs.
• Neither of the major parties is running on a policy that will boost the funding available for commercial cookery or hospitality qualifications. In fact, both will likely crack down on rorts in the VET sector at the expense of funding and incentive programs for students and venues alike.
• On tourism, if your venue is in the Yarra Valley or Dandenong Ranges – probably vote 1 Liberal as they commit funding to retain Latrobe and Casey. Otherwise, this is little distinction between the majors.
• Workplace relations continues to be a source of frustration rather than the definitive issue it should be, with one side championing a system that is stacked against hospitality employers and the other still running scared a decade on from their failed overreach. Most SME employers would love to vote Liberal on this issue but may be jaded by the policies in recent years.

In all likelihood, unless you live in one of a dozen or so ‘in play’ marginal seats, your vote won’t make a huge difference. Internal polling on both sides has the Coalition winning a second term with a slightly reduced majority. The key thing, perhaps, is to be aware of the risk of the protest vote and the rise of minor parties and independents. Another cranky Senate will result in 3 more years of stalemates or, perhaps worse, if it’s close and there are a few Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) MPs in the lower house, we may see a weak minority government having to bargain with Xenophon to get legislation passed. God forbid.

As a firm, we’re not partisan. If you’re a publican, a Coalition government will be better for your after tax profits. If you’re in a growth area with new housing developments (think Pakenham, Sunbury), Labor’s negative gearing changes might work for you by spurring more new home construction. If you’re a club person, it’s neither here nor there. One thing is for certain, we should all be careful of the crazies in the minor parties who are seeking to block the next government’s policy initiatives at the expense of progress, jobs, investment, growth and stability.